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“Confounding his critics and defying his own character, Gordon Brown has, in fewer than 100 days, proved to be a vote-winner,” said Tom Bower in The Evening Standard. As the 100 days ended the newspapers were full of reports that Labour was preparing for a snap election although the Conservatives had started to close in the polls. What happened next: Decided at the last minute against a snap election, led Labour to defeat in 2010 election. First 100 days: Gordon Brown TONY BLAIR Image copyright Getty Images With a 17 point opinion poll lead over the Conservatives, and glowing plaudits from the press, everything was going swimmingly for Tony Blair as he reached his first 100 days as Labour leader in the autumn of 1994. Even a party conference defeat over scrapping Clause IV of the party’s constitution – a battle he would go on to win the following year – and a shadow cheapest flights to miami florida from honolulu cabinet election which left many of Labour’s old guard in place failed to dent his momentum. There was some sniping from the press about the high moral tone of his first conference speech, as he sought to contrast Labour with the “sleazy” Tories. What happened next: Won 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections before standing down in 2007. First 100 days: Tony Blair JOHN MAJOR “Mr Major emerges from his hundred days the best-loved prime minister in living memory,” wrote Peter Jenkins in The Independent in early 1991. The new Conservative prime minister was widely praised his for steady, statesmanlike handling of the Gulf conflict and the aftermath of the IRA’s failed mortar attack on Downing Street. And while his first 100 days had not exactly been a blur of activity, the Conservatives had edged ahead in the opinion polls wiping out Labour’s previous nine-point lead. What happened next: Pulled off surprise victory in 1992 election, but hammered in 1997.
Given that oil prices have been low for more than two years, it is natural that this major tailwind has already been accounted for and priced in. Despite its waning impact, cheap oil remains one of the major growth drivers for the transportation sector. Headwinds As noted earlier the transportation sector is poised to take a beating in Q3 thanks to the multiple headwinds that the sector faces. The challenges include declining travel demand due to security concerns associated with more frequent terrorist attacks, Brexit induced uncertainty, declining coal shipments and driver shortages, to name a few. The limited impact of cheap oil is also unfavorable for transportation players. The bearish Zacks Industry ranks of most of the sub-groups of the transportation industry are also reflective of the headwinds confronting the space. For example, the Transportation-Airline, Transportation-Truck, Transportation-Ship and the Transportation-Equipment & Leasing units carry a bearish Zacks Industry rank of 226, 242, 213 and 236, respectively among more than 260 groups. Is an Earnings Beat Likely? Despite the tough times the entire sector is going through, registering an earnings beat should not be a very difficult for some of the sector participants. This is primarily because the plethora of issues in the sector have resulted in earnings estimates moving south for quite some time owing to multiple downward revisions. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter is quite conservative and much lower in most cases than the comparable year-ago figure.
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